Radiation levels, etc.

It seems that media outlets are very excited about the continuing situation at the Fukushima Daiichi (=Fukushima No. 1) nuclear plant, owned/operated by Tokyo Electric (a.k.a. 東京電力 or TEPCO).  The plant is about 170 miles north-northeast of Tokyo (174 miles from my place in Yokohama).  


There have been several releases of radioactive material, mostly in the form of steam from the cooling system, which was released to relieve pressure inside the reactor and protect the reactor's containment vessel.  This vessel is a safety device designed to contain the nuclear fuel, etc, in case of a critical event (meltdown, I guess).  An expert on public TV (NHK) said the highest level of ambient (in the air) radiation currently in the Fukushima region is still 1/240-th of a single CT scan.  The latest news is of contamination found in spinach and milk 60 miles or more from the plant.  Distribution of produce from the area was promptly halted.  Good that someone's checking.  


According to a US Embassy notice tonight (3/22 8:30pm), measured radiation levels in the Tokyo area are not elevated at all:

"...radiation monitoring by the Japanese government, U.S. government assets, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) all indicate that levels of radiation measured in Tokyo as well as Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures remain at background levels, well below levels which are dangerous to human health. The Japanese Ministry of Education, Science and Technology is providing regular updated radioactivity measurements by prefecture, available online. This data appears consistent with measurements generated by WHO, the IAEA and the U.S. government. WHO information is available at www.wpro.who.int and IAEA data at www.iaea.org. U.S. government experts have also continuously monitored radiation levels on Embassy grounds since March 14, using sophisticated radiation detection meters including high-volume pump samplers that collect information on a 24-hour basis. We have consistently observed normal background levels of radiation."


[Note: "background level" means the amount of radiation that's normally found in the atmosphere.] 


Things are pretty normal here.  We haven't had any blackouts in our neighborhood, which I hear is because we share our sub-grid with a major train line nearby.  The store shelves are full again, and there's just one gas station around that's empty.  The news said one devastated town went from over 10,000 refugees in its evacuation centers to below 4,000, which seems to be a positive sign.  Of course their recovery has barely begun, but at least the roads are opening and they're getting basic necessities (Hanes is sending t-shirts!).  They've even begun erecting temporary housing units (after 10 days).  That took two weeks or more after the Kobe/Hanshin quake, and much longer after Katrina (remember the trailer fiasco?).  Above all, I'm amazed by the steady manner of the people there, whether they've lost parents, children, their house, car, or all of the above.  Maybe they're still in shock.  

CA Local news coverage

Patch is a network of local online news providers.  The La Canada Patch site used something I wrote in a news item.

Here's the link.

5 minutes of fame?

Somewhat normal

Well, as of Tuesday midday, many things are normal.

Leo's school is in session, half-day.  The local (Japanese) schools are open, perhaps showing their civic purpose, caring for the kids (my opinion).  The kids may be safer at school than at home, and it probably helps them mentally to be there with their classmates and teachers.

Tyler's school (private International) shut down for the entire week.  Spring break begins Saturday anyway, and many people had already decided to evacuate.  Most of the evacuating people are Europeans.  My guess of the reasons is, 1) financial means, 2) information gap (language barrier), and 3) experience and memory of Chernobyl, which was much closer to them than us Americans.

Mika is at work as usual.  Although her section doesn't handle domestic claims, the insurance company already has thousands of claims from the disaster.  We hear that many employers are having their people stay at home, partly because of the blackout uncertainty, and partly because of transportation difficulties.

Our neighborhood avoided the scheduled blackouts yesterday and today.  The electric utility (TEPCO) has planned rotating blackouts to deal with the reduced generating capacity, but have not actually turned the power off as long as demand has stayed below the supply level.

There are some economic worries.  Train service is somewhat limited (because of power supply, not damage) and many stores are shortening their hours (related to commuting problems?), and the stock market is down to the level of 6 months ago.  

Mostly, we're glued to the TV (maybe like you)!

Planned blackouts

The electric company (Tokyo Electric Power Co.) announced Sunday night (10pm?) that it would start rolling planned blackouts on Monday morning.  The issue is the lack of supply due to shutdown of many generating plants after the earthquake.  The most famous (infamous) is the Fukushima nuclear plant.

The announcement, by the CEO, was late and details were fuzzy.  The schedule and list of areas was unclear, looked like a faxed draft, and some towns appeared on multiple lists.

As Monday morning came, a TEPCO spokesman had two more press conferences, resulting in the following pattern:
1.  Announced the planned blackouts
2.  Announced the planned blackouts wouldn't be needed
3.  Announced the planned blackouts might happen later if needed

As it turned out, the first four areas were not blacked out.  Demand for power was lower than expected, due partly to measures such as reduced train service.

Other times I'm impressed by the calm, measured planning and execution in Japan, but this time it was just totally half-baked.

Earthquake forecasts (?)

The expert "talking heads" tell us that there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7+ quake in the next three days, and then 50% over the next 2-3 days after that.  That is much smaller than the original 9.0, but we don't know where it might happen, so it could be closer to Yokohama and cause a bigger impact on us if it happens.

Photos of minor quake damage in Yokohama

Here are some photos from the Yokohama station area, showing some minor damage.  The earthquake (8.8 or 8.9 at source) was measured at 5 in our area, which is not very bad, and damage appears limited.  

Huge earthquake!

11 March 2011

Japan earthquake

Here's where we live: Google map

Quake center was around here.　I estimate the distance at almost 500 km (around 300 miles) from our apartment.

I was at home, and the building started shaking.  I've been in plenty of quakes before, including Wednesday in the same spot (a 7.9 I think), so I figured it'd soon be over.  But it just kept going!  The furniture was moving, so I moved to a doorway in a concrete wall.  Our place is the 9th floor, so the building was really rocking.  We still have some boxes stacked from moving, so I thought they might fall.  A few books fell, one tall floor lamp, and one box of photos.  The file cabinet doors came open, but luckily that's all at our place.  

Our 6th grader, Leo was held at school, so I walked over to get him around 4:30 when the shaking settled down.  Of course the elevator was stopped.  The schoolkids had to leave without their backpacks and shoes (no going back inside the building).  Leo said they stayed under their desks for about 10 min before moving to the gym.  They have chair cushions that double as head protection, so they all used those against falling objects. 

After leaving Leo's school the supermarket was closed, so we stopped at a convenience store (7 Eleven).  There was a line of about 15?, but 3 cashiers kept people moving.  Things were calm, and no damage was visible in the store.  One person had an armful of water bottles, and another had 4-5 cups of instant ramen, but there was still plenty of stuff on the shelves.  We got the mail (delivered as usual although the PO closed early), and hiked up 9 floors.  

Our 9th grader was stuck at school because the trains were stopped and it's about 15 km away.  He was later able to go home with a friend who lives close to school, where he spent the night.  The school sent us frequent email updates (10 yesterday alone), telling where the students were, and how to authorize their release to a third party.  

My wife Mika was at work near Tokyo station.  The trains were stopped, so she was going to stay overnight in the office or go home with a co-worker (estimated 2.5 hour walk!).  Phones were jammed, but we were able to communicate by email.  Eventually, she was able to get on the bullet train, which stops near our house, where I picked her up in the car around 10 pm.  Most regular trains were still out of service, which was partly waiting to check the tracks, and partly out of concern for aftershocks affecting moving trains (possible derailment, or stranding passengers inside).  

We had just re-checked our disaster bag a few weeks ago, so that was ready to go.  We have canned water (lasts like 5 years) and emergency noodles which also last years.  Flashlights, insurance info and cash money are other things always ready to go.  Other advice we hear is to fill the bathtub immediately, in case water service is cut off.  From the Kobe quake, we know that the toilet is something often forgotten - it takes water to flush!  We slept last night with coats and shoes next to the bed.  

One important lesson is that you can't rely on phones in an emergency, especially cell phones.  Cell phone service was nearly zero until this morning, and even landlines didn't connect long distance.  It's critical to decide beforehand where you will go in an emergency.  

We have lots more quakes here than in LA, and Japanese are famously low-key, so the mood around here has been calm.  For the moment, people are staying pretty close to home.  After the Kobe quake ('95), the volunteers came out a couple days later, partly because transportation links were bad, but also because people move cautiously.  Another trivial fact: public TV had emergency information in Korean, English, Mandarin, Italian and Portuguese.  I got several automated emails with earthquake warnings from the national Meteorological Agency.  I don't think I ever requested them.  I assume it's a kind of reverse 911 system.  Tokyo opened public high schools last night as rest stations for people walking home over long distances (since most people commute by train, the second option is often walking for several hours!).  We saw many videos of emergency shelters (schools and other public facilities), and the staffs seemed to have things under control, with water, blankets, generators, food and such.  The nuclear power plant in Fukushima seems to be an exception.  The 4 or 5 emergency diesel generators all failed, so cooling the reactor is a worry.  Of course that is very close to the quake center.  

You may have noticed that most of the destruction seems to be from the tsunamis, not the earthquake itself.  I think this is a testament to seismic construction standards, but tsunami-floods are hard to plan for.